Hermes
Hermes Project
The HERMES project is an initiative of the Research Group: Intelligent Predictions in Methods Applied to Time Series – PIMAT and aims to study the evolution of viral epidemics through the analysis of data from epidemiological series. Started in 2020 due to the COVID19 pandemic, the project begins with the objective of presenting a study on the use of sigmoid functions, focusing on the Richards function and its derivations, to model the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Based on works already published with the aim of modeling epidemics and pandemics, it was possible to identify the existence of a considerable amount of research on descriptive capacity, that is, the effectiveness in representing the trajectory of a given epidemic within a time interval. defined (also known as wave), of models based on sigmoid growth functions. However, few of these works focus on analyzing the predictive capacity, that is, the ability to project the future scenario of a pandemic based on its history, of the previously mentioned models.
From research aimed at making predictions of epidemiological conditions, it was possible to preliminarily prove that it is possible to project, in up to 45 days for some cases (understand cases such as cities, states, countries or regions), the scenario of a given disease outbreak, using non-linear regressions based on sigmoid functions.
In this way, the project describes the analysis of the predictive power of a model based on the Richards function, through the construction of an interactive graphical interface, bringing, in addition to the results of usability tests, an analysis of the variation in effectiveness of the model in question. when applied to different phases of the pandemic, as well as to different regions of the world.
The project is currently undergoing updates and is being expanded to analyze data from other viral diseases such as Dengue, Zica and Chikungunya and periodically continues to be updated to incorporate new techniques such as classification methods, wave detection, etc.